Weather forecasting, the prediction of the weather through the application of the principles of physics, supplemented by a variety of statistical and empirical techniques. In addition to prediction or forecasting of atmospheric phenomena themselves, it includes prediction of changes on the surface of the earth caused by atmospheric conditions-e.g., snow and ice cover, storm and floods.
Weather is daily state of the atmosphere, or air, in any given place. This is important to people because it affects their comfort, their food supply, and even their safety. There are really a lot of components to weather. It includes the sunshine, rain, cloud cover, wind, hail, snow, storm, heat wave and more.
~HISTORY~
The Greek philosophers had much to say about meteorology(the branch of science concerned with the process and phenomena of the atmosphere, especially as a means of forecasting the weather.), and many who subsequently engaged in weather forecasting no doubt made use of their ideas. Unfortunately, they probably made many bad predictions, because Aristotle, who was the most influential, did not believe, however, that the west winds are cold because they blow from the sunset.
~MODERN TECHNIQUE~
A daily weather prediction forecast involves the work of thousands of observers and metrologists all over the world, and with the help of thousands of machines. Modern computers make forecasts more accurate than ever, and weather satellites orbiting the earth take photographs of clouds from the space. Scientists use the observations from the ground and space, along with formulas and rules based on various experiments of what happened in the past, and they make their prediction.
~TYPES OF FORECASTING~
Scientists actually use a combination of several different methods to come up with their daily weather forecast. Here are the types of the weather forecast:
- Persistence Forecasting: This assumes that what the weather is doing now is what it will continue to do. To find out what the weather is doing, meteorologists make weather observations.
- A thermometer measures temperature.
- A barometer measures air pressure.
- A rain gauge measures precipitation.
- An anemometer measures wind speed.
Eyes and ears are probably most the most accurate tools.
- Synoptic Forecasting: This method uses basic rules that the atmosphere follows. Meteorologists take their observations and apply those rule to make a short-term forecast.
- Statistical Forecasting: Meteorologists ask themselves, what does it usually do this time of year? Records of average temperatures, average rainfalls and average snowfall over this year give forecasters an idea of what the weather is “supposed to be like” at a certain time of year.
- Computer Forecasting: Forecasters take their observations and plug the number into complicated equations. Several ultra-high-speed computers run these various equations to make computer “models” which give a forecast for the next several days. Often, different equations produce different results, meteorologists must always use the other forecasting methods along with this one. That’s why when it comes to forecasting, machines can’t do it alone; you always need human involved.
Using all the above method forecasters come up with their “best guess” as to what weather conditions will be over the next few days.
~Beating the god~
After decades of statistical juggling, India is preparing to go hi-tech with weather forecast.
Million of lives-119 million in the farming sector alone are dependent on monsoon rains, which account for 70% of the precipitation the subcontinent receives every year. Correctly foretelling the monsoon has become all the more critical in recent times, with India suffering frequent and acute droughts.
In order to improve the precision in monsoon forecasts, the Indian government will invest $60 million on a supercomputer. This new technology will be similar to models currently used in the US.
US Technology:
The joint venture between NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) will eventually launch four new weather satellite that will cover the western hemisphere.
- According to NOAA, the new weather satellite will contribute to more accurate weather prediction and better prediction of serve storms.
- The team behind the new satellite claimed GOES-R would be able to gather data and imagery in real time, relaying information back to the Earth five time better than current speeds.
- The satellite will also be loaded with a new piece of technology known as the “Geostationary Lightning Mapper” which can track when lightning is gathering in clouds, ahead of when it strikes the ground.
- Lockheed Martin won the $1.09 billion contract to build the first satellite and will now build the three remaining weather stations, extending the lifetime of the program to 2036.
SOURCES:
https://www.britannica.com/science/weather-forecasting
http://wxdude.com/singalongcompanion/forecasting/index.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/27/new-satellite-set-to-revolutionize-the-us-weather-forecast.html
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